Cho “Maru” Seong-ju has not lost against Jang “NightMare” Wook once (9-0) since 2015. That includes a perfect 4-0 head-to-head record this year and a 2-1 victory from last week at WardiTV Korean Royale Season 2.

Maru’s flawless record against NightMare explains why the 26-year-old is priced as such a big favourite for this match, on top of the fact that Maru is the current no.1 on the ESL Pro Tour 2023/24 Korea with 2145 points to his name.

Maru is the most successful Korean SCII esports pro player of the year and a back-to-back 2023 Global StarCraft II League: Code S champion. However, he failed to deliver at ESL SC2 Masters 2023 Summer (9th-12th), Gamers8 2023 (5th-8th), and Master’s Coliseum 6 (4th).

Even though Maru should win, NightMare has won a map in two of his last four meetings, making backing the outsider with a 2.5-map advantage at +125 hard to pass on.

Kim “herO” Joon-ho has met with Gabriel Raffaele “HeRoMaRinE” Segat twice this year. He lost the first clash (1-2) in May and got his revenge (2-1) last month during the Gamers8 2023 group stage. Tied at 1-1 on the year and 3-3 all-time, herO and HeRoMaRinE look evenly matched on paper, but that’s not entirely true.

HerO is the current no.9 on the ESL Pro Tour 2023/24, while HeRoMaRinE is ranked ninth on the European ladder, which is enough to prove herO is a better player. However, neither accomplished much this season.

HerO made the semifinals at Intel Extreme Masters Katowice 2023 in February but hasn’t placed higher than top six in the next six premier tournaments. HeRoMaRinE hasn’t finished top three in a single big event since DH SC2 Masters 2022 Valencia: Europe.

Even though herO is a better player, he hasn’t shown much more than the German, and HeRoMaRinE has a fairly solid record against Protoss players (74.55% win rate over the last 55 games). HerO will likely win, but we prefer the outsider with a map advantage.

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Kim “Cure” Doh-wook and Lee “Bunny” Jae-seon last met in the first round of ESL Open Cup #192 Korea just over a week ago, when Cure won 2-0, improving his head-to-head record to 13-8 and 32-21 in maps won since the Korean SCII esports pros first clashed in 2014. Unlike their last meeting, this match will be best-of-five (Bo5), but this won’t benefit Bunny.

The 28-year-old has an excellent record in mirrored matchups, with an 81.25% win rate across the last 16 games; however, it’s important to note that Bunny has played just nine TvT games since February. The only notable opponent he has beaten over that stretch was the current no.16 on the EPT KR ladder, Kim “Ryung” Dong-won.

Cure’s TvT record stands at 67.44% over the last 43 games, but he has managed that number while playing stronger opponents. Cure is also in excellent form, recently claiming silver medals from Gamers8 2023 and Master’s Coliseum 6.

Bunny hasn’t shown much recently, and he usually struggles against Cure, so we have to side with the favourite to get it done with at least two maps to spare.

Riccardo “Reynor” Romiti last met with Kang “Solar” Min-soo at the start of August during Gamers8 2023, when he won 2-1. The Italian previously won against Solar during HomeStory Cup XXIII (4-3) but lost their first meeting of the year in May (1-2) during Kung Fu Cup 2023 Weekly #5.

The two Zerg players are tied at ten wins apiece in all-time head-to-head, with Reynor holding a slight 35-33 lead in maps won. Reynor has won five of their last eight clashes but twice as Protoss, translating to a 3-3 record in ZvZ matchups since January 2022.

This explains why the StarCraft II betting sites have priced the two players at the same odds, but we like Reynor better. Solar is in excellent form (61.33% win rate over last 181 games) and is 80.49% in mirrored matchups, but he can be a bit more inconsistent than the Italian SCII pro.

Reynor looked shaky at Master’s Coliseum 6 a few weeks ago when he crashed out in the first round (9th-12th). However, that was the first tournament he hasn’t placed inside the top eight since 2022 GSL S3: Code S.

Over 4.5 maps at +150 with BetOnline isn’t a bad choice, as all of their last five meetings went the distance, but we prefer a straight bet on Reynor.

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?Despite being two of the best StarCraft II esports players from their regions, Joona “Serral” Sotala and Jang “Creator” Hyun-woo will clash on Friday for only the third time ever. They first met in 2018, while their last meeting came at HomeStory Cup XXI in July 2022, when Serral won 2-0.

Given his success, it makes sense for esports betting sites to have Serral priced as the favourite for this affair, and even -833.33 doesn’t seem too crazy. Serral is one of the best SCII players in recent history, and he proved that with titles from IEM Katowice 2022, HomeStory Cup XXI, and TSL 9, which he added on top of a silver medal from TSL 8, and a top-three finish at DH Masters Atlanta.

Creator has not won a big tournament in years; however, he had a few strong showings in 2022, including a silver medal from 2022 Global StarCraft II League Season 1: Code S. Creator has also been far more active over the last month, so as much as this is Serral’s match to lose, Creator should be prepared to cause some damage.

We’re getting -200 on Creator to win at least one map, which is a solid offer. A smaller position on Creator with a 1.5-map handicap is also worth considering.

?Park “Dark” Ryung-woo and Clément “Clem” Desplanches last met just over a month ago at IEM Katowice 2023, when Dark won 2-0 and eliminated the French SCII pro from the group stage.

Clem has since attended four tournaments, including #PassionCraft Knockout which he won with an incredible 4-1 victory over Kim “Cure” Doh-wook in the finals. Dark was just as active recently and did well earlier this month at WardiTV Winter Championship 2023 NA Server Qualifier #1 and ESL Open Cup #166 Korea.

Since Dark beat Clem a month ago, it’s fair to say that he has a solid chance to win again, but the offered SCII betting odds overestimate him a bit. Clem is still an elite-level player who just happened to have a poor run in Katowice, so we wouldn’t overreact to that defeat.

Clem is an excellent value bet at the offered price.

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Byun “ByuN” Hyun-woo has met with Tobias “ShoWTimE” Sieber 14 times since 2016, but just thrice in 2022. The Korean StarCraft II esports pro won two fixures (2-1) last year, but both times with a minimal margin (3-2, 2-1), so perhaps he shouldn’t be priced at just -303.03 with esports betting sites.

However, ByuN has achieved a lot more at the end of 2022, including a semifinal run at the 2022 AfreecaTV GSL Super Tournament 2 and a bronze medal from HomeStory Cup XXII. He has since added a 9th-12th finish at IEM Katowice 2023, surpassing ShoWTimE, who finished the tournament in 17th-20th place.

Yet the biggest reason why ByuN is considered a firm favourite for this affair is his strong showing at Korean Starcraft League #1 last week, when he reached the finals and narrowly lost against the current no.1 on the Korean ESL Pro Tour 2022/23 standings, Cho “Maru” Seong-ju.

ShoWTimE fought well against ByuN last season, and his Protoss vs Terran record is at a solid 61.54% win rate. However, expecting him to defeat the in-form ByuN seems a bit too optimistic.

Riccardo “Reynor” Romiti ended 2022 with an incredible performance at HomeStory Cup XXII, where he hasn’t lost a match en route to his first trophy of the year. Unfortunately, the Italian SCII pro has since not added another title to his impressive resume after crashing out of the Intel Extreme Masters in Katowice at the quarterfinals.

Kim “Cure” Doh-wook hasn’t been on top of his game for a while now and has not won a tournament trophy since Global StarCraft II League Season 3: Code S in October 2021. He showed some glimpses of greatness last season but nothing exceptional, and his 17th-20th result in Katowice doesn’t help defend his chances to upset Reynor.

However, Cure looked incredible last week at WardiTV Korean Royale Qualifier #1, where he defeated Kim “Ryung” Dong-won, Kim “herO” Joon-ho, Park “Dark” Ryung-woo, and Kang “Solar” Min-soo. In contrast, Reynor hasn’t played against an Asian opponent since Katowice and has had a couple of shaky games at ESL Open Cup #165 Europe against lesser players.

As much as we don’t want to allow recency bias to dictate our predictions, Cure has done enough recently for us to argue that the offered SCII betting odds underestimate him. We don’t expect an upset, but Cure with a map advantage at -120.48 with BetOnline is a no-brainer pick.

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?Kim “herO” Joon-ho and Li “TIME” Peinan have met five times throughout their StarCraft II careers but not once in 2022. Their last meeting happened during ESL Open Cup #101 Korea in December 2021, when TIME won 2-1, marking his second head-to-head (2-3) victory. But according to the latest odds, he’ll have difficulty emulating that success.

The esports betting sites have herO priced as a -454.55 favourite, which translates to an 82% implied probability of winning. And even though herO is the most likely victor, 82% seems a bit high.

TIME enters this bout with an 8-11 record over his last 19 outings and is 3-4 over the last three weeks, with wins against Alex “Neeb” Sunderhaft (2-0), Jang “Creator” Hyun-woo (2-0) and Park “Zoun” Han-sol (2-0) and losses against Kang “Solar” Min-soo (0-2), Byun “ByuN” Hyun-woo (1-3), Max “Astrea” Angel (0-2), and Cho “Maru” Seong-ju (0-1).

It’s important to mention that TIME has lost just two series against a Protoss player since the start of October, which translates to a 14-2 TvP record. The Chinese SCII pro is also 53-27 in TvP matchups with a 75.71% win rate. Meanwhile, herO is 47-31 in PvT matchups with a 59.74% win rate.

So even though herO is in much better form (11-1-0), there’s a good chance TIME can steal at least one map. A moneyline on TIME to win isn’t a bad choice either, but we’ll play it safe and settle on a map handicap bet.

?Kim “Cure” Doh-wook and Miko?aj “Elazer” Ogonowski last met just under two weeks ago, when Elazer picked up his second head-to-head victory (2-1), improving his all-time h2h record to 2-6. The last time the Polish SCII esports pro defeated Cure was in November 2020, and he has since lost two series (0-2 and 1-2).

So even though Cure holds a strong record into Elazer, he is just 8-5 in maps won over the last two years. Still, Cure is in solid form ahead of this clash, with a 7-1-3 record and solid showing against some of the world’s top players. Elazer is 10-1-4 over, but most of his wins came against lesser opponents in Daniel “Daniello” Kogut, Micha? “PAPI” Królikowski, Krystian “Krystianer” Szcz?sny, and Mateusz “Gerald” Budziak.

On paper, Cure looks stronger, but he has been struggling in TvZ matchups lately and holds a fairly disappointing 46.67% win rate over the last 60 outings (28-32). Elazer’s ZvT record isn’t much better, though, with a 52.50% win rate and 21-19.

It wouldn’t be surprising to see Elazer force a three-map series, but at even odds or better, Cure to win 2-0 makes the most sense. His current stats aren’t better than Elazer’s, but Cure had to play significantly tougher opponents.

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?Byun “ByuN” Hyun-woo has met with Park “DRG” Soo-ho 34 times throughout his StarCraft II esports career and won 21 series (21-13), which translated to a 61.75% head-to-head win rate. Meanwhile, his map record against DRG is at 62-54 or 53.45%.

Interestingly, DRG won the last four meetings of 2021 (4-1, 2-0. 2-0, 3-0) but has managed just two h2h victories in 2022. That includes a closely-fought 2-1 triumph during GSL Season 3 Code S at the end of September. But despite DRG’s success last time, it’s tough to doubt ByuN.

The 29-year-old has won 11 out of 14 tournaments he attended in October and finished top-four (twice runner-up) in the remaining three. In contrast, DRG hasn’t won a single event since ITaX Super Series #77 in March and attended just one tournament in October – 2022 Global StarCraft II League Season 3 Code S, where he placed fifth.

DRG is a very solid player and not someone you would underestimate. But it will take a lot to take down ByuN, who is in the form of his career.

It’s strange seeing a European player priced as a favourite against a Korean StarCraft 2 esports pro, but the offered SCII betting odds on this match seem fair. The Dane has met with Classic five times in his career and has won all but one clash – a 2-3 loss the first time MaxPax played Classic in February 2022.

Since then, MaxPax has been the dominant player, with four straight wins and three 2-0 sweeps. Moreover, MaxPax is very efficient in mirrored matchups, with a 73.79% Protoss vs Protoss career win rate, which he has further improved to 82.30% across the last 113 fixtures (93-20).

Classic holds a 61.88% career PvP win rate but is only 52.94% across the last 51 PvP fixtures. On a more positive note, Classic has won six of his last ten outings, yet those wins came mostly against lesser players.

Classic deserves respect for his achievements over his 12-year-long career as the first player to have won both a GSL and an SSL, but he has been struggling lately and is not at the same level as the rising Danish SCII star.

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Park “Dark” Ryung-woo and Shin “RagnaroK” Hee-beom last met during AfreecaTV Champions Cup South Korea Qualifiers at the end of October, when RagnaroK won 2-0. It marked his first head-to-head victory against Dark since IntoTheAlphaX Pro Circuit 4 in 2020 and only his fourth in history.

Knowing how one-sided these meetings have been over the last eight years, it’s expected to see esports betting sites pricing Dark as the favourite. But we have to consider much better RagnaroK has been playing lately.

RagnaroK has been steadily improving since the turn of the year and is currently ranked no.11 in the world and no.7 in South Korea. Moreover, he has improved his performances in mirrored matchups and heads into this bout with a 70.37% ZvZ win rate. In contrast, Dark’s ZvZ win rate is at 63.16%, which is slightly lower than his career average of 63.64%.

Dark is a more established player and (still) higher rated than RagnaroK, but at the offered StarCraft II betting odds, the value is with the outsider. RagnaroK won against Dark just over two weeks ago, and there’s no reason to believe he can’t do it again.

Clément “Clem” Desplanches is priced as a huge favourite for his eighth meeting with Park “Zoun” Han-sol, which makes sense knowing that the French SCII pro has won all but one clash against the Korean – during StayAtHome Story Cup #3 (1-3) in March 2021. Since then, Clem has claimed three head-to-head wins, including two 2-0 sweeps in 2022.

Besides his solid record against Zoun, Clem has also won a lot since September – two ESL Open Cup tournaments and DH SC2 Masters 2022 Atlanta: Europe. In October, Clem added two semifinal appearances in ESL Open Cup #146 and #147.

Zoun has not won a single event since ESL Open Cup #130 Korea in July and has just three victories since August 10. That stretch includes a run of one win and 12 losses between late August and early October. Moreover, Zoun enters this bout with a 41.38% win rate over the last 58 outings (46.43% against Terran).

In comparison, Clem has a 72.51% win rate with a +72% against all three races, including Protoss (72.29%). There’s a huge gap between the two players, and anything besides a 2-0 sweep will be a disappointment for Clem.

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?Kang “Solar” Min-soo and Park “Zoun” Han-sol will meet in the opening match of Group D for the 12th time of the year and the third time of this month. Zoun leads the head-to-head in 2021 with 7-4 and is 2-0 up in October (3-1 and 2-0), so it’s no surprise seeing him priced as the betting favourite.

Zoun’s recent success when facing Solar doesn’t necessarily guarantee him success on Friday; however, his strong record against his compatriot goes beyond October. Solar has been the more efficient player early into the year, having won three of their opening five bouts; however, he has managed only one across the last six.

Over that stretch, Zoun has accumulated a healthy 14-6 aggregate map lead and has picked up three clean sweeps, so it’s hard to doubt the 24-year-old’s chances to add his eighth head-to-head win on the year. Alternatively, a position on over 2.5 maps looks tempting at -105.26, given Zoun’s tendency to drop maps – as he has done in eight of his last 10 outings.

?The current no.8 on the Korean EPT ladder, Cho “Dream” Joong-hyuk, will clash with the third-highest rated European StarCreaft II pro, Riccardo “Reynor” Romiti, for the fourth time of the year and the eighth time in history. Although it’s rare to see a European SCII pro priced as low against one of the top-10 rated Korean players, there’s a reasonable explanation for the offered odds.

Reynor is not only one of the top players in the world, but he’s also 7-0 up in the head-to-head with Dream. What’s more, the Italian leads 16-4 in maps won, albeit is only 6-3 across their last two meetings.

Based on their last two meetings from May (3-2) and July (3-1), Dream has been catching up to Reynor, but three maps across two series are hardly enough to warrant a bet on the outsider. So unless Reynor flops, he should win with relative ease.

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?Tobias “ShoWTimE” Sieber and Byun “ByuN” Hyun-woo will clash in the opening match of Group C at PiG Sty Festival, marking their third meeting of the year and their first since the German StarCraft II pro won 2-1 in September. It marked his third head-to-head victory and the first since March 2017, having lost his other two bouts with ByuN in July 2017 and February 2021.

Despite his success in September, the esports bookmakers have ShoWTimE priced as an underdog, which is understandable; however, we wouldn’t say that ByuN is that much better. Even though the 28-year-old has accomplished far more over his 11-year SCII esports career, he hasn’t won anything of note since the Cheeseadelphia Winter Championship in January.

ShoWTimE’s success in 2021 was limited to a few Minor tournament titles and one Major title at WardiTV Team Liquid Map Contest #7. Regardless, there is nothing that would suggest that ByuN’s implied probability of winning this bout should be anywhere close to 70%. ShoWTimE should be priced much lower, which presents us with a great value bet at the offered SCII betting odds.

?The current no.8 on the European ladder, Julian “Lambo” Brosig, will clash with Korea’s no.6, Joo “Zest” Sung-wook, in their fourth meeting of the year. Zest triumphed in the first two meetings with 2-1 and 2-0 to improve his head-to-head record to 6-1, but he lost 1-2 against Lambo last week.

Even though one win doesn’t mean much, especially since it was Lambo’s first head-to-head victory since 2018, it does show that the German StarCraft II pro can put up a fight against the 2015 world champion. Whether he can emulate that success on Thursday is another question.

It’s hard to find a solid case for Lambo; however, at the offered SCII betting odds, it’s fair to explore options to bet on the underdog. At +240, a small bet on Lambo is worth considering, but we will play it safe and settle for the outsider with a map advantage.

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?Europe’s no.1, Clément “Clem” Desplanches, will clash with the current no.28 on the European ESL Pro Tour, Aleksandr “Bly” Svysiuk, in the opening match of Group B. As the SCII betting odds would appear to suggest, it should be a very one-sided affair.

Clem has met with Bly 10 times in 2021 and hasn’t lost once. What’s more, the French SCII pro has dropped only five maps out of 27 played (22-5) against the Ukrainian, including one from their last meeting (2-1) in August.

It’s clear who should win, but we wouldn’t bet on Clem, even with a map handicap (-454.55). Bly has managed to steal a map from Clem five times across 10 outings, yet we’re getting +300 on the outsider at the line. Bly with a +1.5 map handicap is a great bet at the offered odds.

?Like the first match of the day, the clash between Cho “Trap” Seong-ho and Miko?aj “Elazer” Ogonowski promises to be a one-sided one, and we must agree. Trap is the current no.1 on the Korean ESL Pro Tour ladder with 2592 EPT Points – well ahead of Lee “Rogue” Yeol (2005) in second and Cho “Maru” Seong-ju (1880) in third – while Elazer is ranked no.9 in Europe.

There should be a massive quality gap between the two players, mainly because the Korean players are generally better than European SCII pros – excluding EU’s top three in Clem, Riccardo “Reynor” Romiti, and Joona “Serral” Sotala. However, Elazer has won a map against Trap (1-2) in June, in their only meeting of 2021.

Besides that minor victory and occasional flashes of greatness that followed, the Pole hasn’t done enough to earn our trust. Elazer is without a tournament victory since ESL Open Cup #75 Europe in June, while his only notable tournament placements of 2021 came from Minor events.

Trap is the better player, by far, and we expect that to show on Wednesday.

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